The government's fundamental role is to keep us safe. At its core, it is a risk management organization that protects citizens and society. Yet our current president and especially his shadow president don’t care one iota about risk management.
Apparently, many Americans don’t care either. They’re ready to f*ck around and find out. Great… just great. 😵💫
In his book, The Fifth Risk, author Michael Lewis wrote about the incredible lack of attention Trump and his team paid to risk management in his first administration. They didn’t even feign caring about a smooth transition of power.
An incoming president’s team traditionally spends as much time with the outgoing administration to learn whatever they can. After all, they’re taking over one of the largest and most powerful organizations in the world.
It’s kind of a BFD.
Trump’s team, however, often spent a day or less before inauguration with the new organization they would be leading. Even Steve Bannon, a Trump ally, said of Trump early in the transition, “Holy fuck, this guy doesn't know anything. And he doesn't give a shit.” Friends, if Steve Bannon is worried about chaos, we should be checking with the climate scientists to see if hell is freezing over.
This time around, Trump showed even less interest in a coordinated transition. His transition team waited two months (!!) to start the security clearance process for transition officials and refused to sign ethics commitments (promising start…🙄). They didn’t even pretend to care.
In hindsight, we can presume they didn’t care because they planned to destroy the whole system. What’s the point in planning when you intend to shred it to sh*t anyway?
Rich white boys with massive safety nets
Trump cares little about risk management, particularly when it costs money. He's grown up with so much privilege and a safety net so high and solid that he has no regard for the actual cost of failing. He's always been bailed out by his father's money. He's developed a tolerance and affinity for risk that works for the uber-wealthy but doesn't work for government bodies protecting all Americans.
In a letter to Senators urging them to reject RFK Jr’s nomination as Secretary of Health and Human Services, Caroline Kennedy portrayed her cousin similarly. He took significant risks, made poor decisions, and relied on his charisma to exploit people around him, knowing that “the many second chances he was given” (i.e., his family’s money and power) would catch him when he fell. He hasn’t changed.
The tech bros backing Trump did not all grow up wealthy, but they’ve come to relish their riches and safety nets, too. They believe they’re all-knowing and untouchable. In Silicon Valley, they make huge bets on start-ups (many of which fail!). They’re cushioned by parents and investors before hitting it big and surround themselves with “yes men” after accruing billions.
These paths reinforce their comfort with risk levels acceptable in Silicon Valley but unworkable and irresponsible in government. We can’t bet the house on black. The Social Security coffers need a better backup plan. 💰
🥸 Who’s gonna tell ‘em?
An algorithm of intentional destruction
Musk is wildly reckless. Risky strategies might work with Tesla or SpaceX (though not for Twitter, which has lost 80% of its market value since Musk bought it). But they do not work for the government!
Over the years, Musk developed an algorithm for "fixing" an organization (i.e., making it lean and hungry). Capitalism might call his algorithm a form of “creative destruction.”
Here’s the algorithm, as described by Isaacson (in his biography of Elon Musk):
It had five commandments:
1. Question every requirement. Each should come with the name of the person who made it. You should never accept that a requirement came from a department, such as from “the legal department” or “the safety department.” You need to know the name of the real person who made that requirement. Then you should question it, no matter how smart that person is. Requirements from smart people are the most dangerous, because people are less likely to question them. Always do so, even if the requirement came from me. Then make the requirements less dumb.
2. Delete any part or process you can. You may have to add them back later. In fact, if you do not end up adding back at least 10% of them, then you didn’t delete enough.
3. Simplify and optimize. This should come after step two. A common mistake is to simplify and optimize a part or a process that should not exist.
4. Accelerate cycle time. Every process can be speeded up. But only do this after you have followed the first three steps. In the Tesla factory, I mistakenly spent a lot of time accelerating processes that I later realized should have been deleted.
5. Automate. That comes last. The big mistake in Nevada and at Fremont was that I began by trying to automate every step. We should have waited until all the requirements had been questioned, parts and processes deleted, and the bugs were shaken out.
While these principles may work well in an organization striving to innovate in private industry, this is not how government does (or should!!) work. I've written about this before, but I'll repeat it here.
Their [tech bros] plan to run the government like a private company will not work, or at least it shouldn’t work. The government should not operate like a private company. It serves citizens, not shareholders. Shareholders pay for a voting seat at the table, and their relative power increases with relative investment and wealth. No one has to pay for a voting seat in a democracy; the system should serve everyone equally without a paywall.
Furthermore, there’s value in the system being a bit slow and crunchy to reflect and incorporate the needs of 330+ million Americans. I didn’t always believe this, but I understand now that our government shouldn’t move as quickly and smoothly as private companies at the behest of the top decision-makers.
Government manages serious risks, and we are clueless
Lewis' argument about the importance of the government as a risk management organization is compelling. The government is our most important risk management organization, but most Americans have no idea. Kathy Sullivan, former NOAA leader under Obama, said:
I'm routinely appalled by how profoundly ignorant even highly educated people are when it comes to the structure and function of our government. The sense of Citizen has been replaced by Consumer. The idea that government should serve the citizens like a waiter or concierge, rather than in a "collective good" sense.
“All about me” does sound very American… 🙄
Poor civic education drives some lack of knowledge about this. But Lewis argues, and I agree, that the (willful?) ignorance of government’s risk management responsibilities also stems from a complacency Americans have developed over an extended period of prosperity. Lewis says, "People who had lived without government were more likely to find meaning in it. On the other hand, people who had never experienced a collapsed state were slow to appreciate a state that had not yet collapsed."
Americans have taken for granted a well-functioning liberal, democratic (little l, little d) government that, while far from perfect, keeps the train on the tracks for most Americans. The government runs in the background with little attention (which is good; that means it's working!). We’re ready to watch it all burn down because we neither know nor appreciate how much safety and stability a bureaucratic government brings to our lives.
I guess we’re gonna f*ck around and find out…
Essential government risk management responsibilities
A combination of federal, state, and local government organizations provide health insurance, food, housing, and basic needs to the most vulnerable among us. The government manages international intelligence to prevent terrorist attacks, manage wars, and track down the most dangerous of criminals to protect all of us.
Through the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), part of the Department of Commerce, oddly enough, the government collects unfathomable amounts of weather data to provide routine forecasts and important notifications of impending natural disasters (not to mention their deep bench of dedicated scientists studying and helping us prepare for climate change).
Economic branches of the government manage financial risks to mitigate against large market swings and hopefully prevent or alleviate major economic downturns. The government builds and maintains roads and bridges. Government experts manage diseases, pollution, medications, and public health risks to prevent massive exposure to toxic chemicals, broad distribution of dangerous drugs, and disease epidemics. The Department of Energy (DOE) manages two of the most significant risks to humanity: nuclear weapons and climate change.
These risk management activities save lives - lots of lives!
Some of the serious risks that the government monitors and manages are fast risks like pandemics (which Trump failed to manage), hurricanes, and terrorist attacks. But most are slow risks that accumulate over long periods, related more to what we don't do than what we do, like:
lack of repairs and maintenance
assets that are misplaced or forgotten
ceding technical and scientific leadership to foreign adversaries and knowledge that is never created when we forego Big Science and basic research (DeepSeek is just the beginning…)
In short, Lewis says, "It is what you never learned that might have saved you."
Government funds significant basic research and Big Science
Many government agencies, like the DOE, conduct a lot of Big Science, which is a big deal. These agencies perform basic science and research that support more specific, market-driven projects down the road. Government-funded basic research has led to significant breakthroughs in medical research, energy production, space exploration, agricultural advancements, satellite technology, and more. It even led to the Internet!
Battery technology research. You’re welcome, Elon. Space exploration research. You’re welcome, Elon. Satellite technology. You’re welcome, Elon.
Notably, the Department of Energy loan program funded Tesla research through a $465 million loan (you’re welcome, Elon) when no one in the private sector would do it because it was too high risk (i.e., unlikely to yield a significant enough return in a sufficient time to please investors). The DOE loan department has earned the government over $5 billion in interest (it fricking makes money!).
Elon wants to eliminate the funding to the government agencies that funded Big Science, which ultimately made him rich. GTFOH, Elon. 🙄
Throughout the book, Lewis returns to basic research and science as an integral part of the country's risk management. Basic research informs climate and weather data, preparation and response to national disasters, pandemic prevention and management, almost anything related to human health management, energy planning and production, and so much more. Understanding risks related to climate, health, energy, and such profoundly impacts everyday life. Americans don't want national surprises in these realms of our lives.
Trump, MAGA, and the current Republican party have spent considerable effort belittling and battering scientists of all stripes. It seems their primary incentive is to dispute the authority of experts so they can convince the public that their leaders are the sole knowers of the truth. This is an incredibly profitable grift and a classic path to authoritarianism.
The lies and disinformation to discredit legitimate science have longer-term consequences yet to be fully revealed. It's incredibly dangerous to empty our national science labs of non-partisan, lifelong professional scientists and replace them with grifting loyalists (like RFK Jr) who will defund real scientific work and trade it for partisan junk science.
The government does many things most Americans never know or expect of our institutions. Even the short list of responsibilities in the book surprised me, and that's undoubtedly a tiny fraction of all the ways mundane government service serves my life.
From science to risk management to national intelligence, the work of the government is slow and bureaucratic but also a solid foundation for the stability of society we've come to expect. Americans take this for granted; most living Americans have not lived through any period of broad instability.
Our current administration seems willing to toss aside the core principles of governmental risk management as wasteful budgetary bloat to turn a personal profit and with little regard for the fallout.
What do they care? They're primarily billionaires or benefactors of billionaires, so they have personal safety nets (and “super secret” not-actually-secret $100 million compounds on islands like Hawaii and New Zealand 🤫) that protect them from any mass collapse. We can rot in collapsing hell while they jet off on their PJs to paradise. ✈️ They’re fine with that. Are you?
Risks to innovation by defunding Big Science
Blowing up Big Science in our government, a primary focus of the anti-science MAGA movement, will have significant and long-term consequences. It poses a massive risk to innovation, a key advantage that has defined the United States and our global power and influence.
Raw science around energy innovation, healthcare advancements, and technology often starts in government science labs. The risks and payback periods for basic research are too long and high risk for the private sector. The government absorbs and manages these risks, and then the private sector invests once a technology gets closer to commercialization.
Furthermore, the government receives no return on its investment in most cases. The private sector, on the other hand, looks for ROIs of 20% or higher for innovation. The market is not interested in supporting basic research because it is not profitable. But even if it did, it would demand more significant returns in exchange for basic research's cost, risk, and extended horizon. This would make basic research even more expensive than it is when done inside government institutions.
Government shouldn’t operate like a private company
The government isn't perfect by any means. However, the government, especially the federal government, should not operate on the same principles as a private organization built to disrupt. Musk's commandments that he unleashed on Tesla, SpaceX, and most recently, Twitter are dangerous when applied to the federal government.
These are not comparable projects in the least! The Big Tech projects that informed Musk's approach to reform and innovation were ‘high risk, high reward,’ and the people investing in them had the means to absorb failure. They’ve got PJs and compounds, remember?
The government is, by design, a low-risk, low-reward organization with intentional levels of bureaucracy that provide stability and risk management. The government should look out for the rest of us who can’t exploit everyone else for personal gain.
Failure of the federal government is not a viable option. Musk can blow up rockets at SpaceX or prototypes at Tesla; trial and error is part of the scientific research process.
But you don’t get a redo running social security or building a bridge people drive over daily. You don’t get a redo when the Federal Aviation Administration is underfunded and unstaffed and a plane and helicopter crash over the Potomac River. You sure as hell don’t get a redo in most of the missions executed by the Department of Defense. In too many cases, if the government needs a mulligan, people starve, end up on the street, and die. The government is not a Silicon Valley start-up.
Musk seems deep in Step 2 of his five commandments in his destruction of the United States government - delete more than necessary and add back only as it becomes imperative.
When too many people are laid off at Tesla, HR posts new jobs on LinkedIn. When a process breaks because steps are cut out at Tesla, employees revisit and rebuild it to make it work. When the United States federal government fires 10% too many employees from the FBI or the CIA or cuts 10% too much funding from Social Security, Medicare, WIC, or USAID, people die, and many more will suffer.
📢 I'll say it again for the people in the back. Tech startups and federal government agencies are not the same and do not operate under the same level of risk tolerance. The federal government is designed to mitigate risk, not entice it!
Unfortunately, Americans (and the world) will find out the hard way that the government plays a vital role in keeping us and our society safe, healthy, and stable. As Musk’s recklessness, Trump’s disregard, and Project 2025’s disdain toward the bureaucracy of our government collide, we’re likely to see the fallout of such discord. It’s only a matter of time.
I guess we’re gonna f*ck around and find out…
It’s what you fail to imagine that kills you
I’ll end by quoting Lewis's last paragraph in the book. He writes about a woman who lived in a town that experienced major tornadoes more often than most. She had a home and a barn where her husband committed suicide. She prayed for a tornado to take the barn and, with it, all the pain and suffering it represented to her.
The tornado came, but it took everything (including her house) and killed many people in her town in its path. We feel her pain, and yet, we must be mindful of what we wish for because the consequences may be far more dire than we could ever anticipate. Lewis writes:
"You might have good reason to pray for a tornado, whether it comes in the shape of swirling winds, or a politician. You imagine the thing doing the damage that you would like to see done, and no more. It's what you fail to imagine that kills you."
Though the book was published in 2018 about the first two years of Trump’s first administration, this couldn't be more true today. So many who voted for Trump imagined a specific type of destruction they either desired or could tolerate in exchange for something else. They've failed to appreciate the government’s primary purpose as a risk manager and to imagine how terrible, hostile, and cruel he and his administration would be. Only time will tell how far we fall.
I guess we’re gonna f*ck around and find out.
